Indonesia's Presidential Election: The Former General's Next Move

Presidential Battle, Chess Board Analogy

  • Parties within the Prabowo-Gibran coalition have garnered 40 percent of the vote. While significant, the coalition is actively strengthening its ties by reaching out to former allies to quell resistance. The Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud coalitions are reportedly intensifying efforts to gather evidence of fraud and may initiate a parliamentary inquiry that could lead to Jokowi's impeachment.
  • Anwar Usman's lawsuit aiming to reclaim his role as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court raises suspicions that it's part of a strategy to ensure Prabowo-Gibran's victory in a single-round election. But as happened in the previous presidential elections, the chances of post-election lawsuits derailing victory are slim.
  • Prabowo’s administration outlook: Prabowo has repeatedly emphasized Indonesia's non-aligned position and the importance of both China and the United States to Indonesia. However, he acknowledges China's significant role in Indonesia's trade and economy, indicating that a strong alliance with China will be upheld. Meanwhile Military, food, and energy resilience will be his key priorities.
  • Amid speculation about Gibran potentially assuming the presidency should Prabowo's health decline, attention must also be paid to the possibility of friction arising from the dual power dynamics between Prabowo and Jokowi in the next government.

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