Indonesia's Presidential Election: Front-Runners and Potential Chaos


  • The Prabowo-Gibran ticket continues its upward trajectory in electability, surpassing 40 percent in various surveys. Conversely, Ganjar Mahfud faces a consistent decline in multiple surveys, with Anies-Muhaimin leading in some instances.
  • Prabowo has a greater chance of securing a one-round victory if the electability of either Ganjar or Anies drops below 15 percent. Currently, both maintain secure positions above 20 percent, but Ganjar has experienced a notable decline in recent months.
  • Anies secures the second position in electability across several surveys, indicating a strong potential to face Prabowo in a two-round election scenario. Yet, uncertainties persist regarding a possible collaboration between the Anies and Ganjar camps, given the uneasy relations between their supporting parties.
  • The specter of potential chaos looms, from President Jokowi's impeachment to legal disputes toward or after the election.

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