Indonesia’s Trade Balance: What Can Be Anticipated?

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is poised to unveil the trade balance data for February 2024 on Friday, Mar. 15. Market consensus compiled by Bloomberg suggests that exports are once again slated to register a negative annual growth. Exports are expected to decline by around 6.5 percent, albeit showing improvement from January's decline of 8.06 percent. The global economy's gradual recovery supports this trend, albeit still in its nascent stage.

According to Bloomberg's market consensus, Indonesia's imports are projected to surge by 10.27 percent, a significant leap from January's 0.36 percent growth. Despite exports continuing their negative growth trajectory and imports showing strong growth, the trade balance is forecasted to return to surplus territory. The median projection for the surplus stands at US$2.32 billion, surpassing January's surplus of US$2.01 billion. This would mark 46 consecutive months of trade balance surplus if this materialized. The last time the trade balance experienced a deficit was in April 2020.