Covid-19 Worst-Case Scenario: Economic Standstill

Summary

The government has prepared the worst-case scenario over coronavirus pandemic, or Covid-19. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said the worst-case scenario includes a zero percent economic growth if the epidemic continues for more than six months. "If the pandemic lingers longer or even ends in lockdown, the economic growth may fall to 2.5 percent even zero percent," Sri Mulyani said on Friday (3/20).

She said international trade activities could suffer a 30 percent decline. What is even worse, the aviation industry may fall by 75 percent to 100 percent as travel restriction goes worldwide. Nevertheless, Sri Mulyani still believes that in a moderate situation, the government can contain the spread of Covid-19 and maintain economic growth at above four percent.

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